He visited the political parties to get their views before the election. EGİAD At the beginning of the week, the Aegean Young Businessmen Association discussed the economy agenda this time. Hosting IS Investment International Markets Director Şant Manukyan and IS Investment Research Director Serhat Gürlenen with the meeting titled “Global Markets and Recent Developments in the Turkish Economy”, the NGO opened the economy for discussion for the business world.
EGİAD Important names of the business world participated in the event held at the Association Headquarters. Delivering the opening speech of the event where current developments in the economy were evaluated. EGİAD President Alp Avni Yelkenbiçer made an economic evaluation.
We Should Return to the Economic Policies Used in the World
Referring to the spiral of interest, exchange rate and inflation, earthquake economy and the Izmir Entrepreneurship Research Report published by the institution last month, Yelkenbiçer said in his speech, “One of the questions in our minds is what the dollar and euro exchange rates will be after the election, but will the Turkish lira depreciate further after the election? I think it would be a more meaningful point of view. We saw that the exchange rates started to rise as we approached the election, but this should be considered normal. The answer to the question of whether the TL will lose value against foreign currencies after the election largely depends on what kind of path will be followed after the election; We think that we should give up the economic policy that we have often said to be wrong in terms of economic theory and return to the right policies.” He started with his words.
We Need a Healthy and Sustainable Growth Environment Post-Election
Stating that the initiatives on post-election appointments and structural reforms will be decisive, Yelkenbiçer said, “We need a healthy and sustainable growth environment after the election. We think that it is not possible to switch to a balanced growth without achieving price stability. Therefore, our first priority should be the fight against inflation,” he said.
The Need for a Fully Independent Central Bank and a New Staff
Pointing out that all these expectations can be realized with an independent study, Yelkenbiçer continued as follows: “Undoubtedly, it is necessary to achieve these with a fully independent Central Bank and a new staff. We hope that individuals and institutions will not have reputational problems while taking and implementing such decisions.”
Effects of Earthquake Disaster on Economy
Evaluating the effects of the earthquake disaster on the economy, EGİAD President Alp Avni Yelkenbiçer stated that the wounds caused by the earthquake should not be forgotten and said, “The earthquake region, which should also be supported socially and socially, takes an important place in the Turkish economy. Our cities, which account for nearly 10% of national income and 8% of exports, were affected by the disaster. 3 cities with nearly 11 million jobs are in a critical position in domestic trade and energy supply. With a national income of over 100 billion dollars, 11 cities have a capacity of 20 billion dollars in exports. This year, 11 cities were expected to export 22 billion dollars and create nearly 110 new jobs. A partial decrease in production, employment and exports can be expected due to the earthquake. In addition, considering those who left the region, it can be said that the region will need additional investments and incentives in the coming years. We will definitely need to take these issues into account while drawing the economic policy route after the election," he said.
Difficult Days Await Us, Considering the World Conjuncture
Yelkenbiçer, who also opened a title to the entrepreneurship ecosystem through the İzmir Entrepreneurship Research Report, said that the twin transformation in the world to the development of entrepreneurial activities; Stating that it should be looked at from the green and digital transformation window, he said, “It is the entrepreneurial activities that we see as the exit point of our country from the middle income trap. As a result of the findings of our report, it is predicted that the entrepreneurs in our country will be leaders in the green and digital transformation of institutions and can help companies gain competitive advantage in the international arena. Turkey's per capita income; It went up to the level of 2013 thousand US dollars in 12, but today it is around 9500 US dollars because we could not make technological breakthroughs and we chose other areas in our investment preferences. By supporting opportunity entrepreneurs in our country, we need to create an environment of trust in which the rule of law is allocated, where we can prevent the loss of our human capital as a brain drain. Regardless of the outcome of the election, I foresee difficult days waiting for us by considering the world conjuncture. I share this not as a pessimism, but as a wish for us to be ready for the struggle using scientific methods," he said.
Drawing attention with his articles in the Economy Newspaper, IS Investment International Markets Director Shant Manukyan stated that it is unlikely that the crisis will turn into 2008. A flow of deposits has started from small banks to large ones. Small banks are both increasing their deposit rates and narrowing their loans. If there is no increase in deposit rates, there will be shifts to alternative markets, namely money market funds. Therefore, we will see a tightening with factors other than the Fed. Many banks may choose to sell shares to strengthen their capital, which will not make current shareholders happy. The Fed, which had not faced the threat of inflation in the previous decades, was in a hurry to come to the aid of the markets. This time he does not have such luxury. For this reason, they will not announce the end of the struggle for inflation. However, we can say with certainty that interest rate increases will now slow down.
IS Investment Research Director Serhat Gürlenen said, “The problems experienced in US banks were brought under control before they reached a level that threatened the financial system. The outflow of deposits from the banking system and the flight of deposits from small banks to large banks stopped. Regional bank shares are rising again after a long hiatus. "The shock is expected to tighten financial conditions and drag growth down," he said. Evaluating the effects of the last earthquake and the possible consequences of the Marmara earthquake, Gürlenen said, “The disaster we are experiencing shows how great the earthquake risk facing the Turkish economy is. According to PwC analysis, two-thirds of industrial production in Turkey takes place in regions with high earthquake risk. The human loss and economic cost of an earthquake in the Marmara region may exceed three times that of the Maraş earthquake. In order to be prepared for the said disaster risk, a medium-term earthquake plan should be prepared and implemented under the leadership of the state with the participation of all stakeholders. In the long term, we think that the reconstruction and strengthening works to be carried out in the Marmara Region will require more than 100 billion dollars of resources. Referring to the domestic developments, Gürlenen said, “While the budget deficit regressed to 2022% of the national income in 0,9, we have a primary surplus for the first time since 2017. In 2023, the budget deficit will exceed 5,0% of the national income due to the expenditures on reconstruction activities, aid to the earthquake-affected population, tax cuts to companies affected by the earthquake and EYT. The strong budget performance of 2022 provides an area for earthquake relief in fiscal policy in 2023. The 250 billion lira budget deficit we saw in the first three months is due to election expenditures, expenditures made to the earthquake zone and tax deferrals.