Will China's 'Excess Production Capacity Theory' Work?

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will begin his second visit to China today. According to reports in the foreign media, it has been reported that Blinken will continue to provoke the so-called "excessive production capacity theory" with China, this time by taking over the microphone from Finance Minister Janet Yellen.

China's advantageous sectors are seen as "sectors with excessive production capacity" in the eyes of the USA. And as China has demonstrated competitiveness in new energy sectors, the US press has stirred up the issue. In other words, the intense attention paid by the US media to China's so-called “overcapacity” reflects an effort to keep up with the achievements and innovations of the Chinese economy. Behind this lies the US's concerns about the development of China's new and qualified production forces.

Additionally, Europe has been frequently mentioned in US news since 2023. Europe is claimed to be at the forefront of those “threatened” by China's new energy sectors. The US instigation of the “excess production capacity theory” aims to force European allies to support the US and turn this theory into a weapon in trade with China.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai said in a speech on April 4 that the US and the European Union (EU) should correct measures that do not suit their markets. Indeed, starting from 2023, the United States began to mobilize its allies.

The United States is deeply concerned, perhaps because of China's real competitiveness in its new energy sectors and its awareness of the objective distances between China and industrial production capacity. Moreover, China and Europe are pioneers in developing clean energy technologies in the world. Although some different voices are heard from the political environment in Europe, intensive contacts are maintained between businesses, publics and research institutions.

Since 2021, European companies such as Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Volkswagen have not only established new factories in China to increase production capacity, but also entered into in-depth collaborations with Chinese new energy vehicle companies, from software to vehicle machinery.

The latest report titled “China-EU Relations – Green Transformation” published by the EU Mission to China revealed that green cooperation has become a key area of ​​China-EU cooperation. Undoubtedly, this cooperation has been one of the biggest obstacles to US “de-risking” efforts against China.

This year, the Biden administration launched a so-called “investigation” into China’s smart connected vehicles. This shows that the United States is trying to hinder and suppress the progress of China's advanced industries through “non-market moves” when sectoral competitiveness cannot keep up with market demands.