Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (İTFB) Dean Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan evaluated the attack on a concert hall in Moscow, in which dozens of people lost their lives.
“Although the Moscow attack was shocking to the whole world, it was not unexpected.” said Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan reminded that Russia is a country that is urban-centered and experienced in being exposed to highly destructive actions.
“THE ACTIONS MAY BE RETURNED…”
Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan said, “They are at war both outside and inside. The action seems more complicated and destructive than it seems right now. There may also be a chain action plan. So it may come back.” said.
Analyzing the possibilities, Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan listed these analyzes as follows:
“1-US and Western diplomatic missions have recently received a warning that extremist organizations are planning terrorist attacks. In other words, intelligence services detected the preparation for action. It also shows that the person who committed this action is known.
“THE US ADMINISTRATION'S ATTEMPT TO CLEAN UKRAINE SHOWS THE CRITICAL SITUATION”
2-If Ukraine is in the background, a very harsh retaliation similar to Israel's response to the Hamas attack can be expected. Terrorist acts serve to legitimize the reaction. The United States, which recognizes Israel's right to legitimate defense, will have difficulty questioning Russia's legitimacy. The fact that the US administration is trying to exonerate Ukraine without any evidence and without even offering condolences shows the criticality of the situation.
“POSSIBLY INCLUDING WAGNER SOLDIERS…”
3- The fact that it took place immediately after the elections in which Putin won victory also raises the possibility of an action related to the domestic political situation. The activists appear to be highly trained soldiers; It is possible that Wagner soldiers were involved.
USE OF ISLAMIC MILITANTS AS SUBCONTRACTORS…
4-We can say that if there is movement in Idlib, extensions of DAESH will be pointed out as the perpetrators. It is customary to use Islamist militants as subcontractors.
“THE WAR MAY EXPAND TOWARDS THE WEST OF UKRAINE…”
5-NATO is seeking access to the Black Sea through Romania. It is building its largest base in Europe on the Black Sea with an investment of 2.5 billion dollars. The action could trigger Russia's pre-emptive geopolitical offensive and the war could expand into western Ukraine.
6-The attack that follows Macron's harsh response may put France in a difficult situation.
“WE HAVE ENTERED AN ERA OF WALKING ON THIN ICE…”
7-Terrorist actions aim to create a reaction, not an effect. Major attacks also create expectations of major reactions. “We have entered a period where we are walking on thin ice.”
“THE ATTACK SEEMS TO BE FROM DAESH/ISIS”
Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (İTFB) Dean Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan emphasized that the Moscow attack appeared to be caused by DAESH/ISIS, according to the latest information, and evaluated items 1-4 and 7 in the probability analysis collectively.
Prof. Dr. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan continued as follows:
1- International attacks carried out by ISIS outside the Middle East region are actions that are subcontracted/undertaken. It is backed by intelligence services and is the tool of mutual retaliation in the East-West rivalry that has now evolved into the Cold War model. It cannot act on its own, provide logistical support, or maintain its existence.
“ISIS ATTACK MAY INSERT OXYGEN CYLINDERS TO ISRAEL. AN INTERESTING EQUATION…”
2- The purpose of the attack may be to provoke Putin into an unconscious and disproportionate reaction similar to Netanyahu and to reactivate Russia's Middle East front. The Russian influence on the Ukrainian front, which has become invisible since Israel's attack on Gaza and has moved towards progress, may have been intended to be stopped by the reopening of the Second Front. By activating the relatively stagnant situation in Syria, the aim may be to turn Israel into an ally that the West needs again, to remind the Russian danger and to reduce Gaza to the background in the Western public opinion. The Hamas attack gave Russia a chance to breathe with the reaction that followed, and now the ISIS attack may put an oxygen tank on Israel. It's an interesting equation.
“PUTIN IS SOMEONE WHO 'EATS FOOD COLD' WHEN IT COMES TO TAKING REVENGE…”
3- Considering that Putin is a cold-blooded politician, there is a possibility that retaliation will take place at some time in Western capitals, again through ISIS, targeting primarily French territory. With his last statement, Macron had already pushed his country to the front lines of the front. Reactivation in Syria may not be in Putin's interest. Let us remind you that Putin is someone who "eats his food cold" when it comes to revenge.
“THE MATTER MAY TURN US (TURKEY) AGAIN”
4- Keeping the idea of "Islamist terrorism" alive in the mass memory is the most valuable tool for the consolidation of Western public opinion and the acceptance of the US leadership. This cognitive orientation is also essential for Israel. Let us also remind you that when we say DAESH, the mind that feeds, grows and keeps it alive also feeds the terrorism against Turkey through DAESH (the antithesis of Kurdish warriors who fight both for Islamist terrorism itself and for the West it opposes). "So, depending on Putin's reaction, the stakes may come down to us again."
