After the earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, all attention was turned to the possible Istanbul earthquake. Expressing that a great earthquake was at the door of Istanbul, Prof. Dr. Naci Görür explained the frightening scenario by saying, “Experts and seismologists are waiting for an earthquake in Istanbul, but there is no exact date to be given.
After the earthquakes in Kahramanmaraş, which destroyed many of our cities, many citizens started to investigate the expected earthquake in Istanbul. Istanbul earthquake map and fault line increased the temperature on the agenda. In the last 5 centuries, there have been 2 major earthquakes in Istanbul. prof. Dr. Naci Görür made a remarkable analysis for the Istanbul earthquake.
The 1509 Istanbul earthquake was recorded on September 10, 1509 as an earthquake with an epicenter in the northeast of the Marmara Sea, estimated to have a magnitude of 7.2. As a result of this Istanbul earthquake, between 4.000 and 13.000 people lost their lives in the capital of the Ottoman Empire. Again in this great earthquake, more than 10.000 people were injured, approximately 1.070 houses were destroyed and thousands of buildings were heavily damaged.
SMALL DOOMSDAY
The 1766 Istanbul earthquake is a very big earthquake, as stated by geologists and seismologists, which happened on the morning of Thursday, May 22, 1766, in the east of the Marmara Sea. This Istanbul earthquake was effective in a wide area stretching from Kocaeli to Tekirdağ. The earthquake, which was recorded as a tsunami on the Marmara coast, caused great damage. More than 4.000 people are estimated to have died.
Gölcük earthquake and Düzce earthquake are not counted as Istanbul earthquakes.
It is striking that large earthquakes with a magnitude above 7 cause an Istanbul earthquake on the Central Marmara fault approximately every 250 years. Earthquake experts state that the risk of a new earthquake on the Central Marmara fault has increased, given that the last major Istanbul earthquake took place in 1766.
After the Kahramanmaraş earthquake, researches for the expected earthquake in Istanbul became more frequent. Experts and seismologists expect an earthquake in Istanbul, but an exact date is not available.
According to earthquake scientists, the expected intensity of the earthquake in Istanbul will be between 7.0 and 7.5. So which districts in Istanbul are safe, which districts are on the fault line and which districts are safe in terms of ground?
Districts with first degree risk according to their proximity to fault lines in the Istanbul earthquake map, Avcılar, Küçükçekmece, Bakırköy, Beylikdüzü, Güngören, Zeytinburnu, Bahçelievler and Fatih on the European side, and Fatih on the Anatolian side. Kadıköy, Üsküdar, Ataşehir, Ümraniye, Maltepe, Kartal, Pendik, Sultanbeyli, Sancaktepe, Tuzla and Islands.
PROF. DR. NACI GÖRÖR: IT'S TURN TO THE ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE…
prof. Dr. Naci Görür made striking statements in a television program he attended. The Sea of Marmara and Erzincan drew attention to the Tunceli region and made warnings. Stating that a major earthquake was at the door of Istanbul, Görür said:
“THIS IS THE PERIOD IN ISTANBUL, THE BIG EARTHQUAKE EVERY 250 YEARS”
The last earthquake we expect here is 1766… It produces a big earthquake every 250 years in Istanbul. Yes, this is the period. The earthquake in the Marmara Region will be in the Marmara Sea. In other words, the North Anatolian fault will be in the inner part of the Marmara. Let's leave the fault discussion now. There is a reality. There will be an earthquake here. There was an earthquake in 99, there was an earthquake in Sarkoy in 1912.
In the section between the two, there has been no earthquake since 1766. This is a seismic vacuum. This gap will be filled and will create the Marmara earthquake. Let's admit it, let the public know it. When such an earthquake occurs, the Asian side will be relatively less affected than the European side. Here, the geological formations are stronger in terms of ground. The Anatolian side is stronger as a ground, and the European side is weaker. So the damage here is relatively greater here.
In places close to the coast, where it goes 10 kilometers inward from the coast, the earthquake will mostly have a magnitude of 9. It will drop as you head north. And 8, 7 vs. will fall. Likewise, on the Anatolian side, the intensity of 9 will decrease in the parallel sections to the coast and towards the north. In some places, even 10 violence will be seen. This is a serious earthquake intensity. Here's what to do in this case: To prepare Istanbul for an earthquake as soon as possible.
“THE EARTHQUAKE OF 7.4 MAY HAVE BEEN IN KARLIOVA”
Çorum is on the North Anatolian fault line. The whole of this belt is within the belt that can create the most active major earthquakes in Turkey and even in the world. This generation consumed its energy roughly from Bingöl-Karlıova to the Sea of Marmara to a very large extent. The great earthquake drained its energy to produce. Now we are waiting for Marmara.
We are also waiting for this section between Erzincan and Karlıova. Here, where Pülümür is, there may be an earthquake of approximately 7.4 magnitude. We always say this on the Yedisu fault.
There may be an earthquake of 7.4 magnitude in Tunceli-Pülümür. The last earthquake here was in 1794. So a lot of time has passed. The Erzincan earthquake probably transferred energy here. Movements on this East Anatolian fault may have affected this area to a certain extent. This is one of the places we worry about.
'Sir, where are you expecting an earthquake?' When you asked me, we would say 'Kahramanmaraş' or something. Now that has passed. It does not have the potential to produce larger earthquakes. I mean, we've been putting Kahramanmaraş on the list for years. We have now removed it from the list.