According to KPMG's Global Automotive Executives Survey, 10 out of 8 executives say electric vehicles will become commonplace. It is estimated that 160 new electric vehicle models will arrive on the global market in the next four years. Many executives think that Apple will enter the automobile market and become one of the leaders in the electric vehicle market by 2030. The top three brands that are expected to be leaders in the electric vehicle market in 2030 are Tesla, Audi and BMW, respectively.
In recent years, radical changes have been experienced due to the intertwining of the automotive and technology sectors in every field from product development to production, from supply chains to customer experience. The 23rd edition of KPMG's Global Automotive Executives Survey also comes at a pivotal time of great change. “Automotive leaders are poised to seize great opportunities. But will they choose the right path?” The latest research, published under the main theme, was carried out with the participation of 30 automotive executives from 915 countries, including Turkey.
The long-term, profitable growth prospects of automotive executives surveyed were more optimistic compared to 2021. 83% of respondents are confident that they will make higher profits in the next five years compared to 2021% in 53. However, executives are taking a more cautious stance on near-term results, given the headwinds facing the global economy. Barriers include a talent gap, uncertain material and component sourcing, the troubled geopolitical landscape and challenging macroeconomic conditions. While 76 percent of respondents are worried that inflation and high interest rates will negatively affect their businesses in 2023, only 14 percent are not worried.
“More than half a trillion dollars are invested in producing new vehicles”
Evaluating the report, KPMG Turkey Automotive Sector Leader Hakan Ölekli pointed out that the exciting future in the automotive industry is no longer theoretical, but gradually turns into reality, and said:
“More than half a trillion dollars are invested in producing dazzling new vehicles at advanced facilities. Investments are being made in electric battery plants, semiconductors, autonomous systems, software and electronics. In this industry, where billions of dollars are invested, some roads may lead automobile companies to their goals, while others may lead companies to failure by diverting them from their goals. The findings of our survey help executives come up with some strategic answers that will enable them to identify the paths their company will take into the future. 'Should we produce alone or form partnerships, how should we distribute capital among our ecosystems, how should we redesign the customer experience, how should we define our autonomous systems strategy?' It is becoming more and more important to answer these and other questions that increase as the competition gets tougher. In summary, strategic flexibility has never been more important today. So yes, some paths will lead to success while others will fail. This survey will be a reference resource for managers who want to make their companies successful.”
10 out of 8 executives think electric vehicles will become more common
Expectations for global electric vehicle (EV) sales in 2030 are becoming more realistic, according to KPMG's Survey of Global Automotive Executives. In 2021, executives predicted that electric vehicles will make up 2030 percent to 20 percent of the market by 70. Now, executives are taking a more cautious view of the challenges that stand in the way of the transition to battery power. Executives estimate this year that electric vehicles will make up at most about 2030 percent of the market by 40. Executives have also greatly reduced their expectations for growth in electric vehicle sales, particularly in India (weak infrastructure), Brazil (biofuel alternatives) and Japan (focus on hybrid and non-battery energy sources).
However, there is also greater confidence that electric vehicles will cost on par with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles without government assistance. 82 percent of respondents believe that electric vehicles can be widely adopted without subsidies in the next 10 years. And 21 percent, three times the rate in 2021, don't think governments should provide direct consumer subsidies for electric vehicles. Many executives state that Apple will enter the automobile market and will be one of the leaders in the electric vehicle market by 2030. Executives expect Tesla to remain the leader in the electric vehicle market. The top 2030 automobile brands that executives predict will be leaders in the electric vehicle market in 10 are as follows: Tesla, Audi, BMW, Apple, Ford, Honda, BYD, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and Toyota.
160 new electric vehicles on the way
According to the research, automakers have invested more than $500 billion in electric vehicle programs, and 160 new electric vehicle models will hit the global market in the next four years. In addition, more than 50 new manufacturers are competing for market share. New companies such as Rivian, Lucid, BYD, Xpeng, Nio, Fisker and Vinfast have also emerged in the last few years. Executives believe that with the introduction of new models and the proliferation of technologies, over the next five years, consumers' purchasing decisions will focus on performance and brand image. Data privacy and security will also be key factors in purchasing decisions.
Automobile customers are also expected to increasingly shop online, creating opportunities for manufacturers to sell directly to consumers and online through dealers. Traditional e-commerce players will also compete for car buyers, according to the survey. Auto executives are also quite optimistic about aftermarket revenues. 62 percent of respondents are quite confident that consumers will be willing to pay monthly subscription fees for software services such as EV charging, vehicle maintenance analytics, advanced driver assistance and other wireless updates. Executives also feel that automakers continue to view the insurance market as a significant growth opportunity, but have shifted their focus from competing against insurers to partnering with them or selling data to them.
Managers focus on shifting their supplies inside the country
Executives are very concerned about the supply of commodities and components, particularly semiconductors, as well as metals such as magnetic steel, which is crucial for improving fuel efficiency and extending battery range. As a precaution against fragility in their supply chains, managers focus on shifting their supplies to or within countries to reduce their dependence on just one or two countries. For example, in the USA alone, more than $15 billion was invested in 40 factories to produce automobile batteries.
Huawei and Waymo, along with Tesla, in the top three in autonomous vehicle solutions
According to the survey, automobile manufacturers; They are very confident in their ability to apply Industry 3 technologies such as machine learning, advanced robotics and 4.0D printing. Investments in new powertrain technologies remain vital, but executives are also placing an emphasis on advanced computing to enable cars' electronic systems. They focus on technologies that will reduce the weight of the vehicle, increase gasoline efficiency and battery range. When the executives are asked the question "which company will be the leader in autonomous vehicle solutions", Tesla takes the first place with 53 percent. It is followed by Huawei with 9 percent and Waymo (Google) with 7 percent. Other companies in the top ten are Argo Al (Ford and VW), Motional (Hyundai and Aptiv), Woven Planet (Toyota), Cruise (GM and Honda), Mobileye, Aurora and AutoX, respectively.
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